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Predicting the spatial occurrence of wildlife is a major challenge for ecology and management. In Latin America, limited knowledge of the number and locations of vampire bat roosts precludes informed allocation of measures intended to prevent rabies spillover to humans and livestock. We inferred the spatial distribution of vampire bat roosts while accounting for observation effort and environmental effects by fitting a log Gaussian Cox process model to the locations of 563 roosts in three regions of Peru. Our model explained 45% of the variance in the observed roost distribution and identified environmental drivers of roost establishment. When correcting for uneven observation effort, our model estimated a total of 2340 roosts, indicating that undetected roosts (76%) exceed known roosts (24%) by threefold. Predicted hotspots of undetected roosts in rabies-free areas revealed high-risk areas for future viral incursions. Using the predicted roost distribution to inform a spatial model of rabies spillover to livestock identified areas with disproportionate underreporting and indicated a higher rabies burden than previously recognized. We provide a transferrable approach to infer the distribution of a mostly unobserved bat reservoir that can inform strategies to prevent the re-emergence of an important zoonosis. 

Intrinsically safe designs and a staged transparent development process will be essential 

Rabies virus (RABV) transmitted by the common vampire bat ( Desmodus rotundus ) poses a threat to agricultural development and public health throughout the Neotropics. The ecology and evolution of rabies host–pathogen dynamics are influenced by two infection-induced behavioural changes. RABV-infected hosts often exhibit increased aggression which facilitates transmission, and rabies also leads to reduced activity and paralysis prior to death. Although several studies document rabies-induced behavioural changes in rodents and other dead-end hosts, surprisingly few studies have measured these changes in vampire bats, the key natural reservoir throughout Latin America. Taking advantage of an experiment designed to test an oral rabies vaccine in captive male vampire bats, we quantify for the first time, to our knowledge, how rabies affects allogrooming and aggressive behaviours in this species. Compared to non-rabid vampire bats, rabid individuals reduced their allogrooming prior to death, but we did not detect increases in aggression among bats. To put our results in context, we review what is known and what remains unclear about behavioural changes of rabid vampire bats (resumen en español, electronic supplementary material, S1). 

Demographic factors are fundamental in shaping infectious disease dynamics. Aspects of populations that create structure, like age and sex, can affect patterns of transmission, infection intensity and population outcomes. However, studies rarely link these processes from individual to population-scale effects. Moreover, the mechanisms underlying demographic differences in disease are frequently unclear. Here, we explore sex-biased infections for a multi-host fungal disease of bats, white-nose syndrome, and link disease-associated mortality between sexes, the distortion of sex ratios and the potential mechanisms underlying sex differences in infection. We collected data on host traits, infection intensity and survival of five bat species at 42 sites across seven years. We found females were more infected than males for all five species. Females also had lower apparent survival over winter and accounted for a smaller proportion of populations over time. Notably, female-biased infections were evident by early hibernation and likely driven by sex-based differences in autumn mating behaviour. Male bats were more active during autumn which likely reduced replication of the cool-growing fungus. Higher disease impacts in female bats may have cascading effects on bat populations beyond the hibernation season by limiting recruitment and increasing the risk of Allee effects.